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Sunday, January 15, 2012

The Walking Wounded - Australian Open Prediction (2012)


The Walking Wounded, a tribe of injured tennis starlettes are heading into the Australian Open carrying injuries. Wrists, hips, backs, ankles you name we got it! In her absence Emily has also given the right to make the predictions posts this time. Which is good considering she has an 0 and 4 record coming in, maybe I will be able to finally bring some success! And now bare with me, as I eat my Lasagna and watch The Golden Girls, and take you on the roller coaster ride of my predictions!

First Quarter;


The first quarter is quite big name heavy. Obviously featuring World Number 1 Caroline Wozniacki, coming into the tournament carrying a wrist injury, former World Number 1 Jelena Jankovic, defending champ Kim Clijsters, Roland Garros champ and 2011 runner up Li Na as well as other regular tour threats, 2008 semi finalist Daniela Hantuchova, in form 2007 quarter finalist Lucia Safarova. Wozniacki and Jankovic are on course for a round of 16 match, which could prove very exciting. Wozniacki is currently receiving coaching assistance from Jankovic's former coach, Ricardo Sanchez, and Jelena Jankovic has been playing incredibly well for the start of the season. All but one of their matches have been close encounters, including three 3 setters in the seven encounters. I completely see this match as a toss up based on two factors, Caroline's injury and Jelena's form. In the lower sector of the quarter the 4th round match will more than likely feature last years finalists, Li Na and Kim Clijsters. Returning from about four months of injury and already set back from injury again, Kim Clijsters will most likely still be the favorite in the match against the returning to form Li Na. I can't see anyone posing any real threat to this 4th round encounter, which will no doubt be another thrilling encounter. I am tipping the 'upset' of Clijsters.


Quarter Final Prediction - [1] Caroline Wozniacki vs [5] Li Na


Second Quarter


The second quarter will most likely be dominated by third seed and Sydney champion, Victoria Azarenka. Victoria has a very easy path to the quarter final, with her seeded 4th round opponent an out of sorts Peng Shuai, however she could encounter a tricky thrid round match against rising German star and Hobart champion Mona Barthel. The lower section is highlighted by Agnieszka Radwanska, the eighth seed. This section is probably the most open in the draw and we could see a run to the 4th round or even quarter final by the likes of Kimiko Date Krumm, Sania Mirza, Tsvetana Pironkova or Galina Voskoboeva. And just to be different, I am going to tip Kimiko to knock off tenth seed Francesca Schiavone in the third round and face off against Radwanska in the fourth.


Quarter Final Prediction - [3] Victoria Azarenka vs Kimiko Date Krumm


Third Quarter


Serena Williams. Does anything else need to be said? One would expect with the draw given to Serena, she should cruise into the second week and round of 16, where things could get tricky. Serena would play Vera Zvonareva if things went to seedings. Vera has been out of form since sacking her coach that took her to number two in the world and two slam finals. The draw has not been kind to Vera either, she opens against Dulgheru (who sent Petra Kvitova home early in the US Open), should play hard hitting Lucie Hradecka in the second and if shes able to survive both of these she will run into an inform and full of confidence Kaia Kanepi. The seeds to meet in the fourth round in the lower section are Maria Sharapova and Sabine Lisicki. Both are hanging under injury clouds, and I would not so boldly predict the upsets of the pair in early rounds. Sharapova hasn't played since September and often struggles with no warm up tournaments, especially at the beginning of the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see a run made by Sloane Stephens, Elena Vesnina, Gisela Dulko or even Shahar Peer who is entering 2012 revitalized and coming off a semifinal run in Hobart. I would imagine Svetlana Kuznetsova, who has been in some great form at the beginning of the year to advance to at least the fourth round, who her opponent will? Your guess is as good as mine.

Quarter Final Prediction - [12] Serena Williams vs [18] Svetlana Kuznetsova


Fourth Quarter


The head line act is none other than Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova. No one in her draw her octet could pose any real threat the her advancing to the quarter finals, I am going to be bold and say the in the 4th round she will play Vania King. In the higher half of this quarter Sam Stosur will carry the hopes of the nation on her racquet, which will be a momentousness task given her recent form. Her first round is against an unpredictable Romaina, Sorana Cirstea and could face Nadia Petrova in the third round. The other seeded player to make the fourth round is Marion Bartoli, despite her great form of recent time I am going to go out on a huge limb and say that the fourth round opponent to Stosur will be either Zheng Jie or American wild card play off winner Madison Keys.


Quarter Final Prediction - [6] Sam Stosur vs [2] Petra Kvitova 


Quarters


Caroline Wozniacki vs Li Na
Based on injury alone, I am going to give a slight edge to Li Na. If Caroline's injury is not too bad, I would expect it to be a different story. Wozniacki will be on  the revenge path following her loss to Li at the semi final stage of last years tournament blowing a match point. It really is a toss up depending of fitness. Both will probably have tough 4th round matches and its basically a toss up. Like I said earlier slight edge to Li

Victoria Azarenka vs Kimiko Date Krumm
This one answers its self

Serena Williams vs Svetlana Kuznetsova 
These good friends share a very rich rivelry which features some epic matches over time. Half of their matches have gone to three sets, and Svetlana does tend to show up when playing Serena. Nearly every match Serena plays is on her racquet, however I feel that in this situation it will all comedown to which Sveta turns up and if she can handle her nerves.

Sam Stosur vs Petra Kvitova 
Petra is 6ft tall. Petra hits hard. Petra is a lefty.
Sam is playing in front of her home crowed, lets face it...she sucks at dealing with pressure.

Semis 


Li Na vs Victoria Azarenka
Li Na seems to have Victoria's number when it comes to slams. Except Vika has won their last two encounters now, and seems to be getting on top if Li. The match should prove to be very very exciting. I give a slight edge to Victoria having just beaten Li in Sydney

Serena Williams vs Petra Kvitova
The match the tennis world has been waiting for. This could be incredible if both players play near their best level. Who will win? I have no idea. I give the slimmest of advantages to Petra, depending on how Serena's ankle is.

The final. 


Victoria Azarenka vs Someone 
If Serena plays Victoria, Serena will win. If Petra plays Victoria, Victoria will win.

I am leaving it at that.

I think, well I am 75% sure we'll see Serena lift the trophy. Trust Emily to give me the toughest draw to predict. Typical.


My names to watch
Victoria Azarenka - probably the best chance from the six possibilities to come out of Melbourne with the number one rank.
Ash Barty - Junior Wimbledon champ won the Australian wild card play offs
Iveta Benesova - She's got the draw to make some noise and is definitely capable
Sania Mizra - I have a feeling she could do something. Sadly I get this feeling a lot.
Lucie Hradecka - The talent is definitely there, she could fare well against Kanepi. R4.
Anna Chakvetadze - Returning from a series of injuries everything was going well in Hobart until a slight back twinge. Could make some sort of a run.
Aleks Wozniak - Dark horse for round 3
Marion Bartoli - Form of her life. Deadly in Perth
Julia Görges - She has some points to defend here and is more than capable
Jelena Jankovic - Her backhand and serve looked the goods in Brisbane and Sydney. Especially the backhand, I don't know where she has been hiding the past year or so, but its back!

35 comments:

Angry Big Mac said...

I'll start backwards

Winner: Angry Bird, yes I'm being biased.

Runner up: Ostrich

My dark horse: Nasti Pav.

Semis: Angry Bird, Na, Ostrich, and whomever is the less injured between the Diva, Ms. Bean, and Serena.

I agree with you Clefairy the Bunny will be upset in the QF.

Over the hill Kuznetsova, JJ, I see no threat from them.

Divapova, Kookie Monster, Serena; the injuries acquired will hamper their run. I get the feeling either the Captain will kill me herself or hire someone to kill me. :P

I'm never sold on Mirza, Sorana, Dulko, Robson.

The way Vera Z. is playing, I'm taking Cibulkova to upset her.

We have to give Lickitongue time, watch for her on the clay season.

Mona if she wants to make a name for herself now is the time.

Lucinda Perry said...

We agree on the most of it then Carlos! I agree Pavs is a dark horse, she always is with the talent she has. The only thing stopping her is fitness IMO.

I agree with Diva, Kookie and Serena, the only reason I tipped her (kind of) is how fit she looks! She looks in better shape that what she ever has that I can remember!

Dulgheru could take out Vera! She has the ability.

I have Mona penciled in for R3 I hope she doesn't disappoint, and I hope I can see her play!

Angry Big Mac said...

Most of the time I'm agreeing with my favorites Aussies, pssst you are one of them Ms. Lucinda.


A couple of notes:

How can the Captain be 0-4 in predictions? She is beginning to remind me of the General. :P


Nice photo of Angry Bird, now I have an idea how the birds look when they crash against glass, beak first. :P

caps321 said...

Watching Bird vs Stephens via ESPN2 on the HDTV. Meanwhile, monitor #2 has the lovely Ms. Aggie against Mattek-sands. And of course monitor #1 has this website on! Although I'm thinking about hitting up http://rgsmotrisport.chatango.com/ which has chat..

I believe ESPN2 said they'd have Kimmie's match later about 11pm Eastern.

Looks like Bunny doesn't play till about 5:00am Eastern tomorrow.

caps321 said...

Opps, don't know what I was thinking. Bird is playing Heather Watson and I happen to like this chick!

Guess I was thinking about why Aggie's match isn't on ESPN2 because she's playing the American. IIRC, ESPN usually shows Americans instead of better players from other countries.

Perhaps something has changed?

caps321 said...

Guess I spoke too soon. ESPN2 already bailed on Bird for some dudes.. Now Aggie is on which isn't bad but I won't hold my breath on how long they stick with this match.

Angry Big Mac said...

Angy Bird just took the first 6-1. Mrs. Angry (I'm making it official) was down 0-40 with Watson serving ended up taking the game and the set.


Mrs. Angry looks weird in those 70s short. Note to the Mrs. learn from the Princess.


Caps your Aggie is being pummel by Bethanie. Bethanie is using power and finesse.


Nasty tattoos by Bethanie.


Aggie's outfit looks like an old outfit that's been sitting in the closet for ten years and decided to wear it.

caps321 said...

Carlos, I haven't watched Mattek sands much at all but she's being really aggressive out there and just won the first set from my dear Aggie!

Not to mention Mattek was up like 5-2 in the set and Aggie was up something like 5-2 in the tie breaker... My, how things change.

Angry Big Mac said...

Caps your woman just lost the first set, 21-10 in the tie break.

Angry Big Mac said...

*12-10

caps321 said...

So, ya think Aggie is sportin' a dress out of her hamper, eh? hahaha

Aggie better close this second set out now and push a third one.

Mattek already hit 49 winners.

caps321 said...

Aggie makes it through after an almost 3.5 hour match. YEAH!

Kimmie should be on after the Bernard Tomic(AUS)vs. Fernando Verdasco(ESP)[22] match.

Bird is being interviewed on ESPN2 right now.

Angry Big Mac said...

Missed the Mrs. interview.


Na in action right now.


Yeah for your woman Caps! I hope she recovers quickly.


Dani H. had a hickie on her thigh, even if it wasn't I'm still calling it a hickie. :P

Angry Big Mac said...

Morita lost. She asked for an injury time out, I wonder if her injury had something to do with her lost.

Angry Big Mac said...

Flavia lost! How can she lose to someone ranked 136th? I didn't even see the match!


Halep and Kimiko lost too.

Angry Big Mac said...

McHale won!!


JJ vs. Robson or as I call it over the hill vs I'm not sold. Any who, over the hill pounded this I'm still a nobody to a bloody pulp. XP I know you Melbournians are high on Robson but she didn't even put up a fight, losing 2-6, 0-6.

caps321 said...

I recorded Kimmie's match on DVR last night.. (Just watched it.) Wait, we're talking about ESPN here and they only showed the first set and the last point of the second!

I wasn't all that impressed with Kimmie's first set but perhaps she'll get into the swing of things.

Looks like they had McHale stuck out on court 19 against Safarova and she took care of business 6-2, 6-4!

Angry Big Mac said...

I couldn't find the McHale match anywhere, I ended up keeping an eye on the scoreboard.

caps321 said...

#166 Mr. Oudin got dumped out in the first round of qualis at the AO.. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

I'm only going to post a few rankings movers seeing that things will most definitely change next week.

Kerber, Angelique - current 30 - previous 31
McHale, Christina - current 42 - previous 43
Barthel, Mona - current 44 - previous 64
Halep, Simona - current 50 - previous 57
Cirstea, Sorana - current 59 - previous 60
Dokic, Jelena - current 64 - previous 71
Mattek-Sands, Bethanie - current 67 - previous 56
Jovanovski, Bojana - current 90 - previous 72
Radwanska, Urszula - current 99 - previous 102

Upcoming matches:

19:00 Zhang - Wozniak (Court 8)
19:00 Lisicki - Voegele (Show Court 3)
19:00 Dushevina - Kvitova (Rod Laver Arena)
19:00 Kirilenko - Gajdosova (Hisense Arena)
20:30 Dulko - Sharapova (Hisense Arena)
21:00 Dokic - Chakvetadze (Margaret Court Arena)
21:00 Zvonareva - Dulgheru (Show Court 2)
23:00 Stosur - Cirstea (Rod Laver Arena)
23:00 Razzano - Bartoli (Show Court 3)
23:00 Makarova - Tanasugarn (Court 6)
01:00 Scheepers - Kuznetsova (Margaret Court Arena)
01:00 Dominguez Lino - Ivanovic (Show Court 2)
01:00 Kerber - Bobusic (Court 6)
01:00 Keys - Zheng (Court 8)
05:00 Paszek - S. Williams (Rod Laver Arena)

As always, all times Eastern.

IIRC, Dokic/Licki were scheduled on some high court number but now it looks like they've been MOVED and WILL be streaming!

Seems ESPN2 isn't starting coverage until 9pm.

I don't have access to ESPN3/Watch ESPN any longer. Seems they pulled a fast one and say I need my tv and internet through the same provider. What a crock! Anyway, I might switch providers but am unsure at this moment. I hear Uverse's VDSL2 doesn't have low latency like Road Runner cable.. Also, I hear people have trouble with streaming on low bandwidth sites like youtube. So, is there any point switching for access to 'Watch ESPN' if the streaming might not be up to par? And what about AT&T Uverse's bandwidth cap of 250GB a month? Not feeling that at the moment.

Angry Big Mac said...

Thanks for info Caps.

So that's what happened to Mr. Oudin haha.

I'm torn between Dokic/Lickitongue match. Damn draw!

I'll be rooting for the Princess. I hope the angry, hungry, Princess shows up.

I never heard of this Mona girl until last week. I'm surprised she is ranked in the top 50.


Speaking of Germans, since now Bird is the official Mrs. does it mean Ms. Licki Bean is the woman on the side, even though I'm spending more time with her? :P


ESPN is a bad product. I wanted the app for my cell, but they want people to jump through hoops, do this, do that, and the reviews for cell stream are not good. I don't know if I should jump through hoops to get a mediocre product.

caps321 said...

Ostrich is looking very good in her purple/blueish outfit. And of course her 'pony' is very 'clean looking' as opposed to Sponge Bob!

Sorta sucks, Brighthouse offers an Ipad app you can also stream ESPN on but of course you need their tv service too. I'm getting an Ipad2 in Feb or March when the Ipad3 comes out and the prices drop on the former.

I won an Ipad1 in a contest but sold it a while back still brand new, sealed in the box.

Angry Big Mac said...

Didn't start watching the streams on time, mainly I saw the second set of Princess and Licki Bean.

Princess won in straight sets she looked fine as usual but a little too colorful.


Ms. Bean is struggling out there third set just got broken to go down 2-3 on the third set. Sh is spraying shots everywhere.


Didn't see the Ostrich match next thing I knew poof over.


Caps, you won an Ipad and sold it? :/ May I ask by how much did you sell it?

Angry Big Mac said...

Lickitongue down early 0-3 to Dokic. Commentators are horrible, stop blowing smoke up..


The other Licki down 3-4.

caps321 said...

I sold the Ipad1 like two weeks before the Ipad2 came out (I didn't even know it was coming out at that time.) It sold for $410.

Then Apple started selling the Ipad1 for $399. I don't really care about the LTE cellular service, quad core and higher resolution on the Ipad3. Which is why the Ipad2 will make me perfectly happy. I'm hoping they drop the price close to the Kindle Fire which is $199. Maybe $299? Because Kindle Fire is taking market share from them, already sold over 4 million.

Lickibean is on ESPN2 right now. Also watching Dokic/Lickitongue.. Strange match, Dokic went up 3-0 and now is leading 3-1.

Angry Big Mac said...

Thanks Caps, I'll turn the T.V. stream is horrible it looks like the players are censored along with the score. I was hoping for nakedness but no luck haha.


Do you recommend the Kindle Fire? I like the price.


Did you win the Ipad in those internet contest?

caps321 said...

Yes, I won the ipad1 from an internet contest but I also enter other ones through the mail. Mostly I sell the stuff and buy things I really want. Lots of times I'll win the 1st or 2nd prize rather than the 'grand one' though. But, my favorite is gift cards. Right now I have a $100 office depot, $75 best buy, $100 visa, and a few others.

Going to sleep, very tired.

Btw, that chat link I posted the other day is pretty whacked. It wasn't bad during the Brisbane tournament but now there is tons of freaks on there talking nonsense and very foul language. Not that I'm offended or anything but that's not what I'm there to do!

Lickitongue gets blown out by Dokic 6-1, 6-2 or something like that.

Angry Big Mac said...

Good night Caps zzzzZzzzzzs.

It looks you got a little gold mine going Caps.



Divapova won 6-0, 6-1. Dulko played awful and I'm being nice and Divapova didn't convince me either, her play looks the same as last year.



Dulko and Pennetta are done in singles if they don't win the doubles title (repeat of last year) they can call AO 12 a horrendous experience.

Angry Big Mac said...

The worst Australian hope is done for the tourney, she was taken out by the chipmunk voiced Romanian.

I'll predict the chipmunk voiced will lose in the second round.


BTW whomever calls Samuel the best Australian hope I would love to sell them a bridge that I own in NY.

caps321 said...

Just starting watching Samuel Choker's match on dvr. ESPN2 only showed the first set up to 2-0 and the second set with Stosur serving down 3-5.

Cirstea has improved a lot in the rankings over the last year or so. I remember when she was around 98 or so but now is #59.

From what I saw Samuel gave her the match because she was just hitting the net or long. Cirstea looked very, very nervous.

That said, I would like to see Cirstea play a full match to better have an opinion of her game.

19:00 Medina Garrigues - Govortsova (Show Court 2)
19:00 Benesova - Peng (Court 6)
19:00 Rogowska - Li (Rod Laver Arena)
19:00 Tsurenko - Hantuchova (Margaret Court Arena)
20:30 Clijsters - Foretz Gacon (Rod Laver Arena)
20:30 Schiavone - Oprandi (Margaret Court Arena)
20:30 McHale - Erakovic (Court 6)
21:00 Chang - Jankovic (Hisense Arena)
21:00 Daniilidou - Goerges (Show Court 3)
23:00 Wozniacki - Tatishvili (Hisense Arena)
23:00 Parmentier - Niculescu (Show Court 2)
23:00 Pervak / Stephens - Fujiwara / Morita (Court 8)
01:00 Ormaechea - Aggie Radwanska (Margaret Court Arena)
02:00 Rodionova / Rodionova - Holland / Peers (Show Court 3)
05:00 Azarenka - Dellacqua (Rod Laver Arena)

As you can see there is an obvious conflict and overlap to consider. Clijsters & McHale are playing at the same time and Goerges starts 30 minutes after both of them.

So, guess I could watch all of them but really can't multitask like I did at a younger age! So, should I assume Kimmie will spank this Foretz Gacon woman and watch the young, tender McHale?? Aggie starts too late so she's on her own this time.

Angry Big Mac said...

How about watching all games at once? ESPN3 three offers up to four screens/games at the same time if you can keep with all them. I can keep up with only two.



What is the over/under of Clefairy being alcohol intoxicated before the first match is over? :P

caps321 said...

I don't have access to ESPN3/Watch ESPN any longer. But, I was thinking about having my sister set up an account but I'd have to walk her through it. And, that's assuming her provider allow remote connections.

ESPN2 doesn't start until 9pm not sure what they'll be showing.. probably some dudes. Guess I could just have the tv on and put a match on each monitor.

Angry Big Mac said...

I'm streaming at the moment because ESPN is showing tennis. They are showing college basketball not that I mind but I'm focusing on tennis at the moment.


I'm watching LiveScoreHunter


I'm focusing on Peng/Benesova match Benesova is playing at at high level, currently she is destroying Peng winning the first set 6-1. Where this Benesova has been? And can she stick a little longer? After this match, on the same court will be the McHale match court six, if I have the correct information.



Give the connection a try Caps who knows it may be jackpot.

caps321 said...

Also, Ula won her first round match against Riske and will face Cirstea next.

Dani is down 4-5 against L.Tsurenko in the first set.

caps321 said...

Guess we posted at the same time! I also watch Live Score Hunter but am not interested in these matches. I'm going to turn it on about 5 minutes before 8:30. (27 minutes from now.)

Would Clefairy be hanging out with her boyfriend? Or is she getting her drink 'on' solo?

caps321 said...

switching to newer thread

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